Wednesday, October 31, 2012

The science behind Hurricane Sandy: a confluence of trouble

WASHINGTON?

?Hurricane Sandy seems straight out of a Hollywood apocalyptic blockbuster. But a confluence of environmental and topographical characteristics helps explain its vast size, slow progress, storm surge and multiple methods of wreaking havoc on the coast and deep inland, scientists say.

Sandy began as a big storm when it formed in the Caribbean, said Katie Garrett, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. It grew as it moved north into the mid-Atlantic, fed by unseasonably warm waters.

Sandy stretches about 940 miles ? greater than the distance from New York to Atlanta ? said Jeff Masters, co-founder of WeatherUnderground.com and a former flight meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane hunters. Sandy is the largest such storm to make landfall on the Eastern Seaboard since 1988, when the government acquired the satellite technology and aircraft to start measuring the size of storms.

PHOTOS: Hurricane Sandy approaches

Sandy's course, from southeast to northwest, is not typical, said Rick Knabb, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Although its path is "not 100% unprecedented," it is unusual for a storm of such size and strength to move inland so late in the year, Knabb said during a telephone news conference Monday.

Even when Atlantic storms come ashore, they usually head back out to sea. Some powerful storms in recent years did not make landfall at all, kept away by weather patterns. But Sandy was pushed into the mid-Atlantic states and New England because a high-pressure system near Greenland blocked its progress eastward.

That shift toward the northwest put Sandy on course to mesh with a cold front that began in California last week and marched across the country, creating what Knabb and others say is an unprecedented weather threat. The force of the eastward-moving front slowed Sandy, Garrett said, changing the hurricane into a nor'easter.

Even before coming ashore, Sandy had begun to lose traits typical of tropical storms, such as thunderstorms at its middle, Garrett said. Instead, Sandy's merger with the cold front threatened to cause severe snow in places. In West Virginia, 3 to 4 feet were predicted in some areas, with less snow in southwestern Virginia and western North Carolina.

"It's not just a tropical storm, but a windstorm, a snowstorm," Garrett said.

Sandy also has produced dramatic storm surges. The swirling movement of its winds created a big bulge of water that typically moves to a storm's center. There, the low pressure in the atmosphere acts like a straw and pulls the water levels even higher, Masters said. If a storm is farther out to sea, that bulge eventually sinks. But because Sandy moved to shallower waters near the coast, that bulge had nowhere to go but toward shore, he said.

The slowness of the storm meant it could sit over the East Coast through several high tide cycles. Scientists were predicting 10- to 11-foot storm surges, including high tide conditions, in places like New York and New Jersey. Monday night's full moon threatened to add another foot to the surge, Knabb said. Finally, many inlets and bays in the mid-Atlantic are funnel-shaped, which means water can surge in easily, but getting out is a challenge.

Knabb said he didn't expect water levels to return to normal until Wednesday.

neela.banerjee@latimes.com

Source: http://feeds.latimes.com/~r/latimes/news/science/~3/utFY8BSE2Do/la-na-sandy-science-20121030,0,3629798.story

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Why Exactly is Chris Christie Subverting Mitt Romney? (Atlantic Politics Channel)

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Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm

Because I'm at home, wind raging outside, trees bending, leaves flying, a hurricane descending, subways suspended, my day upended, I can't stop thinking: "What is Maureen Raymo thinking?"

She teaches at Columbia University, up the block from where I live. She's a paleoclimatologist. Her focus is climate change, and in a book I am reading, she says someday soon we won't be climate victims, we will be climate choosers. We will engineer the climate we want.

"My feeling," she tells author (and NPR commentator) Craig Childs, "is that there is never going to be another ice age as long as there are humans on the planet."

No more ice ages. The Earth will, of course, keep moving nearer and farther from the sun, our planet will keep wobbling on its axis, and there will be times when the Earth wants to be cold and icy and other times when it wants to be warm and green, but by the end of this century, she says, we will know how to keep glaciers where we like them, on mountain tops, at the poles, not down in the valleys, in the forests, where we live.

We won't need an Einstein or a Newton to do this. "To me it just seems like the inevitable outcome of the rise of higher beings [meaning humans with engineering degrees] that can control their destiny." And since next ice age isn't due for another thousand years or more, Raymo figures these same engineers will also take a shot at our global warming problem:

"Right now we are actively changing the climate in a very uncontrolled way, but I'm fairly certain that by the end of this century we'll have developed the technology to titrate the climate, to basically control the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. We'd have a thermostat."

Well, that's good news, no? After all, who wants their home washed away by a swollen ocean or mowed down by a glacier? Not me. Not you. So of course we should try to protect ourselves, and an engineered solution seems targeted, efficient, sensible. If we can pull it off. Why not?

Well, here's something to think about. About five years ago, Jason Box, a glaciologist from Ohio State University flew 31 giant rolls of white plastic to a glacier in Greenland. That glacier was melting at an accelerating rate and he wondered if putting a plastic blanket on top would reduce the melt.

He and his team spread long rolls of white plastic across 10,000 feet of ice, then left for a while. His notion was that the white blanket would reflect back the rays of the sun, deflecting warmth, keeping the ice cool below. When he came back to check the results, here, in this video, you can see what he found...

It worked. Exposed ice had melted faster than covered ice. He had not only saved two feet of glacier in a short time, he'd shown it's possible to keep glaciers intact longer. Plus the fix was technological; no coal plants were shut down. Nobody was taxed, fired, or regulated. Ice was saved, no jobs lost. Just the sort of fix we're looking for.

"Thank you, but no thank you," says Konrad Steffen.

Konrad Steffen, one of the world's most prominent climate scientists, was not impressed. He told Craig that people think technology can save the planet, "but there are other things we need to deal with, like consumption. They burned $50,000 just for the helicopter" ? the one that brought the plastic to the glacier. This experiment, said another scientist, Jose Rial, gives people false hope that climate change can be fixed without changing human behavior. It can't. A better solution, he says, is to "increase the efficiency of automobiles." Geoengineers shouldn't be the ones who clean up human messes, and there's no guarantee geoengineers won't make mistakes too. Technology won't give us a free ride.

But in the long run, geoengineering ? tinkering with air, oceans, the skies ? will help us survive on a changing planet. Maureen Raymo is hardly alone in her prediction. More and more eminent scientists agree with her, that if the human race survives, the engineers will get smarter, the tools will get better, and one day we will control the climate. But what then?

"Just the mention of us controlling the climate, not blindly poking at it as we are now, but manually steering it, sent a small shiver down my back," Craig writes. "What does it mean to manufacture a planet to our liking, assuming we earned the skill to do so? Something sounded wrong about stopping ice ages by our own will," he says.

Me? I'm with Craig on this. I like it better when the Earth takes care of itself, and I'm just a passenger. I like thinking that I'm cargo on a self-regulating blue ball that knows how it ticks, and takes care of its own. I guess one day we will have to run the place, but for the moment, sitting at my desk, looking out at the trees bending wildly, the wind howling, beautiful chaos everywhere, I'm happy not to be in charge. When you write the script, you aren't innocent any more. You know too much.

For a little while longer, I like knowing less.


Craig Childs' new book is called Apocalyptic Planet: Field Guide To The Everending Earth. In it, Craig goes to places that are melting, moving, submerging, freezing, falling apart, losing species, gaining more of us. It's quite a trip. For part of it, he brings his mom. She's amazing.

Source: http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/30/163964979/will-we-fix-the-weather-yes-should-we-fix-the-weather-hmmm?ft=1&f=1007

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Obama cancels third campaigning day to oversee storm response (reuters)

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Communications Coordinator/Copy Writer - HigherEdJobs

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The Communications Coordinator/Copy Writer reports to the Director of Communications, who leads the Communications Department and is a leader within the University Advancement team. This position is responsible for managing many aspects of daily institutional communications, including announcements, feature articles ... Postal Address: Human Resources Life University 1269 Barclay Circle Marietta, GA 30060. Fax: 770-426-2987. Email Address: hr@life.edu ...

Source: http://www.higheredjobs.com/details.cfm?JobCode=175686905

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Obama to release ad in Michigan touting support for auto industry (Star Tribune)

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Jefferson Parish Sheriff's Office West Bank crime report, Oct. 28 ...

This information reflects initial calls for service reported by the Jefferson Parish Sheriff's Office for the west bank of Jefferson Parish. Locations are approximate due to automated location methods and address inconsistencies, the Sheriff's Office says. Burglar alarm calls are excluded.


4th Street and Westwego Avenue - Oct. 28, 10:53 p.m., suspicious person.
5th Street and Gaudet Drive - Oct. 28, 7:47 p.m., suspicious person.
6100 block of 6th Avenue - Oct. 28, 10:05 a.m., vehicle wreck.
1500 block of Abbey Road - Oct. 28, 11:32 a.m., disturbing the peace.
3000 block of Alex Kornman Boulevard - Oct. 28, 7:30 a.m., auto theft.
Ames Boulevard and Caillou Drive - Oct. 28, 6:26 p.m., theft.
Ames Boulevard and Lapalco Boulevard - Oct. 28, 1:23 a.m., suspicious person.
Ames Boulevard and Lapalco Boulevard - Oct. 28, 4:27 p.m., vehicle wreck.
Aster Lane and Dandelion Drive - Oct. 28, 10:16 p.m., suspicious person.
Avenue D and Wichers Drive - Oct. 28, 1:42 p.m., suspicious person.
200 block of Azalea Drive - Oct. 28, 4:15 p.m., burglary.
400 block of Azalea Drive - Oct. 28, 9:59 p.m., suspicious person.
Bannerwood Drive and Lapalco Boulevard - Oct. 28, 12:49 a.m., suspicious person.
1800 block of Barataria Boulevard - Oct. 28, 4:26 p.m., vehicle wreck.
4000 block of Barataria Boulevard - Oct. 28, 8:45 a.m., suspicious person.
7100 block of Barataria Boulevard - Oct. 28, 1:21 a.m., suspicious person.
Barataria Boulevard and Westbank Exp - Oct. 28, 7:45 p.m., suspicious person.
800 block of Behrman Highway - Oct. 28, 10:05 p.m., robbery.
2500 block of Belle Chasse Highway - Oct. 28, 8:09 p.m., robbery.
2500 block of Belle Chasse Highway - Oct. 28, 8:17 p.m., battery.
600 block of Bellemeade Boulevard - Oct. 28, 7:27 p.m., suspicious person.
800 block of Bellemeade Boulevard - Oct. 28, 10:19 p.m., suspicious person.
1600 block of Betty Street - Oct. 28, 4:31 p.m., battery.
500 block of Blk Behrman Highway - Oct. 28, 11:30 p.m., suspicious person.
1500 block of Blk Manhattan Boulevard - Oct. 28, 12:24 a.m., suspicious person.
3500 block of Blk Peters Road - Oct. 28, 10:53 a.m., suspicious person.
1100 block of Blk Terry Parkway - Oct. 28, 9:53 a.m., suspicious person.
400 block of Blk Terry Parkway - Oct. 28, 10:59 a.m., suspicious person.
600 block of Blk Wall Boulevard - Oct. 28, 1:34 a.m., suspicious person.
700 block of Carrollwood Village Drive - Oct. 28, 1:04 a.m., disturbing the peace.
5800 block of Coubra Drive - Oct. 28, 7:07 p.m., disturbing the peace.
1200 block of Destrehan Avenue - Oct. 28, 11:40 a.m., suspicious person.
3000 block of Destrehan Avenue - Oct. 28, 8:09 a.m., suspicious person.
Destrehan Avenue and Max Drive - Oct. 28, 11:30 p.m., suspicious person.
1000 block of Di Marco Drive - Oct. 28, 7:48 p.m., battery.
Ehret Road and Barataria Boulevard - Oct. 28, 8:36 a.m., suspicious person.
1900 block of Farmington Place - Oct. 28, 8:18 p.m., suspicious person.
6000 block of Field Street - Oct. 28, 3:19 a.m., disturbing the peace.
500 block of Fielding Avenue - Oct. 28, 4:05 a.m., vehicle wreck.
George Street and River Road - Oct. 28, 10:34 p.m., suspicious person.
Grovewood Drive and Blythewood Drive - Oct. 28, 1:15 a.m., suspicious person.
Helis Drive and Dolores Street - Oct. 28, 9:35 p.m., suspicious person.
1300 block of Highway 90 - Oct. 28, 11:12 a.m., suspicious person.
700 block of Hooter Road - Oct. 28, 12:52 p.m., disturbing the peace.
2600 block of Kirkwood Drive - Oct. 28, 4:14 a.m., disturbing the peace.
3600 block of Lapalco Boulevard - Oct. 28, 9:59 p.m., suspicious person.
Lapalco Boulevard and Westwood Drive - Oct. 28, 12:10 p.m., illegal discharge of weapon.
Lapalco Boulevard and Westwood Drive - Oct. 28, 3:33 p.m., vehicle wreck.
Lapalco Boulevard and Westwood Drive - Oct. 28, 4:12 p.m., drug law violation.
Liska Street and Imogene Street - Oct. 28, 9:52 p.m., suspicious person.
Liska Street and Sarah Street - Oct. 28, 9:38 p.m., suspicious person.
10 Lucille Street - Oct. 28, 2:32 a.m., burglary.
Mac Arthur Avenue and 7th Street - Oct. 28, 7:35 p.m., suspicious person.
1000 block of Manhattan Boulevard - Oct. 28, 6:04 a.m., assault.
1000 block of Manhattan Boulevard - Oct. 28, 1:29 p.m., drug law violation.
1000 block of Manhattan Boulevard - Oct. 28, 7:31 p.m., residence burglary.
1200 block of Manhattan Boulevard - Oct. 28, 11:56 a.m., vehicle wreck.
2200 block of Manhattan Boulevard - Oct. 28, 11:45 p.m., suspicious person.
900 block of Manhattan Boulevard - Oct. 28, 3:52 a.m., disturbing the peace.
500 block of West Marlin Court - Oct. 28, 1:10 a.m., suspicious person.
1100 block of Medical Center Boulevard - Oct. 28, 12:16 p.m., battery.
900 block of East Monterey Court - Oct. 28, 12:37 p.m., disturbing the peace.
Mt Shasta Lane and Mt Kennedy Drive - Oct. 28, 3:00 p.m., vehicle wreck.
Old Compton Road and Ascot Road - Oct. 28, 11:37 p.m., suspicious person.
3800 block of Red Cedar Lane - Oct. 28, 7:53 p.m., disturbing the peace.
6900 block of River Road - Oct. 28, 8:55 p.m., suspicious person.
River Road and Rivet Boulevard - Oct. 28, 1:35 a.m., suspicious person.
1200 block of Robinson Avenue - Oct. 28, 11:34 a.m., suspicious person.
500 block of Robinson Avenue - Oct. 28, 2:04 a.m., disturbing the peace.
2600 block of Rue Jesann Street - Oct. 28, 3:44 p.m., theft.
5200 block of Sharpe Road - Oct. 28, 12:53 a.m., suspicious person.
Stanley Schofield Way and Butler Drive - Oct. 28, 8:37 p.m., suspicious person.
1000 block of Tallow Tree Lane - Oct. 28, 10:33 a.m., disturbing the peace.
1000 block of Tallow Tree Lane - Oct. 28, 11:00 a.m., suspicious person.
100 block of Terry Parkway - Oct. 28, 8:48 p.m., suspicious person.
600 block of Terry Parkway - Oct. 28, 3:46 a.m., disturbing the peace.
Terry Parkway and Coral Avenue - Oct. 28, 8:56 p.m., suspicious person.
U South 90 Highway and Avondale Garden Road - Oct. 28, 2:07 a.m., suspicious person.
3300 block of Wall Boulevard - Oct. 28, 2:38 p.m., suspicious person.
500 block of Wall Boulevard - Oct. 28, 10:52 p.m., suspicious person.
1700 block of Watling Drive - Oct. 28, 11:28 a.m., criminal damage.
100 block of Westbank Exp - Oct. 28, 4:54 p.m., theft.
Westbank Exp and Barataria Boulevard - Oct. 28, 12:00 a.m., suspicious person.
Westbank Exp and Cohen Avenue - Oct. 28, 7:26 p.m., vehicle wreck.
Westbank Exp and Cohen Avenue - Oct. 28, 7:51 p.m., vehicle wreck.
Westbank Exp and Robinson Avenue - Oct. 28, 3:02 a.m., disturbing the peace.
Westwego Avenue and Third Emanuel Street - Oct. 28, 10:41 p.m., suspicious person.
1500 block of Westwood Drive - Oct. 28, 9:36 p.m., disturbing the peace.
Westwood Drive and Lapalco Boulevard - Oct. 28, 7:33 p.m., suspicious person.
3900 block of Windmere Court - Oct. 28, 8:26 p.m., suspicious person.

Source: http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/2012/10/jefferson_parish_sheriffs_offi_1115.html

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